A Statistical Analysis of Two Giants: Cruz (2011) Vs. Smith (2009)

Before this statistical analysis, we should let it be known that we are only evaluating each player's finest season, as Cruz has only amassed one. Therefore, the end results are derived from a minute sample size. Three peak seasons are required to further go in depth. Victor Cruz’s contract is for 3 years, $1.215 Million. Steve Smith’s contract is for 1 year, $2.281 Million.

YEAR	NAME	CAC	TAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Catch Rate	YPT	TT	TRate
2011	Victor Cruz	82	131	1536	18.7	9	62.60%	11.7	589	22.2%
2009	Steve Smith	107	159	1220	11.4	7	67.30%	7.7	542	29.34%

We regard Steve Smith’s 2009 year to be his greatest one statically. That year, he led the team with a 29 percent Target Rate, compared to Cruz’s 20.37 percent (second to Hakeem Nicks’ 22.6 percent) in 2011. On top of that, Smith was the more consistent ball-catcher. He pulled in 4.7 percent more of the balls thrown his way than Cruz. We should also point out that the 2011 Giants offense threw the ball 47 more times than the 2009 offense and also spread the ball around more often. Nobody had a higher Target Rate in 2011 than the above mentioned 22.6 percent.  On the other hand, despite the fact that Smith had a higher Catch and Target Rate, Cruz accumulated the superior numbers. In terms of Yards, Average, Touchdowns, and Yards per Target, Cruz has Smith beat.

YEAR	NAME	LONG	20+	YDS/G	YAC	1DN	1DN Rate	TT 1DN	YAC Rate
2011	Victor Cruz	99	25	96	508	59	27.3%	216	33.1%
2009	Steve Smith	51	14	76.3	237	61	31.4%	194	19.4%

If we explore deeper into the play-by-play data, we are able to see that Cruz has 11 additional catches of 20+ yards. Even with Smith catching 25 more balls than Cruz, Cruz only trails Smith by two first-down grabs. We should note that this years’ offense has 22 more first downs than the 2009 offense. Smith accounted for 31 percent of all first downs, while Cruz is credited for 27.3 percent of all first downs. What really positions Cruz atop of Smith is his Yards after the Catch data. Cruz boasts a whopping 508 YAC, contrast to Smith’s 237, an extreme disparity of 231 yards. Cruz is average 6.2 YAC to Smith’s measly 2.2 (33.1 percent of Cruz’ yards came after the Catch, 19.4 percent of Smith’s yards came after the Catch). From these numbers we are able to see that Steve Smith’s 2009 campaign was a more efficient one, but Victor Cruz’s 2011 campaign was a more prolific one.

Catch Rate = Catches / Targets
YPT = Yards per Target
TT = Team Targets, sum of all targets per team
TRate = Target Rate, Player Targets / Team Targets

1DN Rate = Player 1DN / Team 1DN

Statistical Data from ESPN

Statistical Formulas from Bill Connolly

Contract Information from RotoWorld