Who is the best quarterback from the 2004 draft class?

In the 2004 NFL Draft, there were 17 quarterbacks taken. Of those 17, only seven remain in the NFL. They are as follows: Eli Manning (1), Philip Rivers (4), Ben Roethlisberger (11), J.P Losman (22), Matt Schaub (90), Luke McCown (106), and Bradlee Van Pelt (250). Of those seven, four have gone on to become pro bowlers (Manning, Roethlisberger, Schaub and Rivers).

ESPN has recently released QBR ratings that date back to the 2008 season. My analysis after the jump.



Matt Schaub --Throughout the past four years, Schaub has gone from having the highest rating in 2008 (69.2) to having the biggest drop between the four. In 2010 he posted the second lowest rating, and a drop of -11.8 points. That is an 18 percent drop off from his initial rating. However, Schaub has bounced back nicely and posted a 66.7 this past year.


Eli Manning -- Manning has arguably been the most "stable" quarterback from the aforementioned draft class. His numbers have never dipped below 61.1 or gone higher than 65.9, giving him the smallest range of 4.8 points between the four QBs. "Stable" sometimes isn't as good as it sounds, though. His four-year average QBR is a 63.12, 2nd lowest among the four.

Ben Roethlisberger --Some would say that Roethlisberger has been the most erratic QB. I would say that he improved his 2008 rating by 21.3 points and regressed to the mean.

Philip Rivers--Rivers and Schaub have had a similar narrative. They were riding high the first two years, but in 2010 both regressed and bounced back in 2011.

In conclusion, from the numbers, I like to think that Rivers has indeed been the "best" regular season quarterback. Most analysts say that the National Football League is a "passing" or a "quarterback" league. I'd argue that although the quarterback most likely has the highest impact on the field, he does not play defense, and does not play special teams. What is interesting to me is that from '09 to '10 all four quarterbacks regressed some (an average of 7.75 pts!) but bounced back this past season. More on that in the next post.